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Handling Data - Describing chance and likelihood

Grade 3Cambridge (IGCSE)

Review the key concepts, formulae, and examples before starting your quiz.

🔑Concepts

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Likelihood refers to how likely it is that an event will happen.

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We use specific words to describe chance: Impossible, Unlikely, Even Chance, Likely, and Certain.

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An event is Impossible if there is no way it can happen. For example, rolling a 77 on a standard 66-sided die.

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An event is Unlikely if it might happen, but probably won't. For example, winning a raffle when you only have one ticket out of 100100.

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An event has an Even Chance if it is just as likely to happen as not to happen (50%50\% chance). For example, tossing a coin and getting 'Heads'.

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An event is Likely if it will probably happen, but is not guaranteed. For example, picking a red marble from a bag containing 99 red marbles and 11 blue marble.

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An event is Certain if it will definitely happen. For example, the day after Monday being Tuesday.

📐Formulae

Probability=Number of favourable outcomesTotal number of possible outcomes\text{Probability} = \frac{\text{Number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}}

💡Examples

Problem 1:

A bag contains 55 green marbles and 55 blue marbles. What is the likelihood of picking a green marble?

Solution:

The likelihood is an Even Chance.

Explanation:

Since there are an equal number of green (55) and blue (55) marbles, the total outcomes are 1010. The probability is 510\frac{5}{10}, which is exactly half or an even chance.

Problem 2:

If you roll a standard 66-sided die, what is the likelihood of rolling a number less than 1010?

Solution:

The likelihood is Certain.

Explanation:

A standard die has numbers 1,2,3,4,5,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 66. All of these numbers are less than 1010, so it is guaranteed to happen.

Problem 3:

What is the likelihood of it snowing in the Sahara Desert tomorrow?

Solution:

The likelihood is Unlikely (or almost Impossible).

Explanation:

While weather can be unpredictable, the Sahara Desert is extremely hot and dry, making snow a very rare event.

Problem 4:

A spinner is divided into 44 sections: 33 are colored Red and 11 is colored Yellow. What is the likelihood that the spinner lands on Red?

Solution:

The likelihood is Likely.

Explanation:

Because 34\frac{3}{4} of the spinner is Red, there is a much higher chance of landing on Red than on Yellow.

Describing chance and likelihood Grade 3 Notes & Examples