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Probability - Random experiments and sample space

Grade 10ICSE

Review the key concepts, formulae, and examples before starting your quiz.

🔑Concepts

Random Experiment: A process or operation where the result cannot be predicted with certainty even though all possible outcomes are known in advance. For example, tossing a fair coin is a random experiment because you know it will land on heads or tails, but you don't know which one will occur in a specific trial.

Sample Space (SS): The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Visually, imagine a universal set containing distinct points, where each point represents one possible result. For a single die roll, the sample space is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}, representing the six faces of the cube.

Event (EE): Any subset of the sample space. An 'Elementary Event' is an outcome that cannot be further decomposed (like rolling a 44), while a 'Compound Event' consists of more than one outcome (like rolling an even number: {2,4,6}\{2, 4, 6\}).

Equally Likely Outcomes: Outcomes are considered equally likely if no particular outcome is more expected to occur than any other. In a fair experiment, such as spinning a wheel divided into equal colored sectors, each sector has the same geometric area and thus the same chance of the pointer landing on it.

Probability of an Event: A numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur, expressed as the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes. Visually, this can be seen as the 'size' of the event subset relative to the 'size' of the entire sample space box.

Impossible and Sure Events: An event that can never happen has a probability of 00 and is called an impossible event (e.g., drawing a blue ball from a bag containing only red balls). An event that is certain to happen has a probability of 11 and is called a sure or certain event.

Complementary Events: For any event AA, the event 'not AA' (denoted as Aˉ\bar{A} or AA') consists of all outcomes in the sample space that are not in AA. Visually, if AA is a circle inside the sample space rectangle, Aˉ\bar{A} is the entire shaded area outside that circle but within the rectangle.

Multiple Trials and Sample Space Size: When multiple independent trials occur, the sample space grows exponentially. For nn coins, there are 2n2^n outcomes; for nn dice, there are 6n6^n outcomes. A tree diagram is often used to visualize these outcomes, where each branch represents a possible choice at each step.

📐Formulae

Theoretical Probability: P(E)=Number of outcomes favorable to ETotal number of possible outcomes in S=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of outcomes favorable to } E}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes in } S} = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}

Range of Probability: 0P(E)10 \le P(E) \le 1

Sum of Complementary Events: P(E)+P(Eˉ)=1P(E) + P(\bar{E}) = 1

Calculating Complement: P(Eˉ)=1P(E)P(\bar{E}) = 1 - P(E)

Outcomes for nn coins: n(S)=2nn(S) = 2^n

Outcomes for nn dice: n(S)=6nn(S) = 6^n

💡Examples

Problem 1:

Two unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least one head.

Solution:

Step 1: Identify the sample space SS. When two coins are tossed, the possible outcomes are S={HH,HT,TH,TT}S = \{HH, HT, TH, TT\}. Therefore, n(S)=4n(S) = 4. Step 2: Identify the outcomes favorable to the event EE ('at least one head'). This includes outcomes with one head or two heads: E={HH,HT,TH}E = \{HH, HT, TH\}. Step 3: Count the favorable outcomes. n(E)=3n(E) = 3. Step 4: Apply the formula P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}. P(E)=34=0.75P(E) = \frac{3}{4} = 0.75.

Explanation:

The term 'at least one' means we include outcomes with 1 head and outcomes with 2 heads, excluding only the case with no heads (TT).

Problem 2:

A fair die is thrown once. What is the probability that the number on top is a prime number?

Solution:

Step 1: The sample space for a single die is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}, so n(S)=6n(S) = 6. Step 2: Identify the prime numbers in the sample space. The prime numbers are 22, 33, and 55. (Note: 11 is neither prime nor composite). Step 3: The event set is E={2,3,5}E = \{2, 3, 5\}, so n(E)=3n(E) = 3. Step 4: Calculate the probability P(E)=n(E)n(S)=36P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)} = \frac{3}{6}. Step 5: Simplify the fraction: P(E)=12P(E) = \frac{1}{2}.

Explanation:

We identify the favorable outcomes by checking which numbers in the sample space meet the definition of a prime number and then divide by the total possible outcomes.